Omicron Subvariant Hasn’t Induced a Surge of Instances


April 6, 2022

The Omicron subvariant BA.2 is inflicting the lion’s share of COVID infections in the US now, however to date it hasn’t resulted in a surge of circumstances.

BA.2 accounted for 72% of circumstances final week, in keeping with the Facilities for Illness Management and Prevention, whereas the general variety of circumstances has continued to fall. The seven-day every day common of COVID circumstances was round 25,000 on Tuesday, in comparison with round 44,000 on March 4 and round 312,000 on Feb. 4, the CDC says.

Some well being specialists say there will not be a surge from BA.2.

“I might not be massively involved about BA.2,” Christopher Murray, MD, a professor of well being metrics sciences on the College of Washington and the director of the Institute for Well being Metrics and Analysis, advised NBC Information.

“Proper now, we’re on this interval the place immunity is excessive and we’re heading into the summer time and transmission tends to be a bit decrease,” he mentioned. “The mixture ought to lead within the Northern Hemisphere to fairly low ranges after the BA.2 wave.”

Case counts jumped when the Delta and Omicron variants appeared, however that’s not occurring with BA.2, Jessica Justman, MD, an epidemiologist at Columbia College’s Mailman College of Public Well being, advised CNN.

“This can be a clear instance of how these two developments should not essentially tied collectively,” she mentioned.

When documented COVID infections went up final month in Europe and different components of the world due to BA.2, U.S. well being specialists apprehensive the identical factor may occur right here. To date, it hasn’t.

Andy Pekosz, director of the Middle for Rising Viruses and Infectious Ailments at Johns Hopkins College, advised CNN that the surge in European BA.2 circumstances occurred as a result of these nations dropped many security precautions when a whole lot of viruses had been nonetheless circulating.

“What you are seeing in Europe could also be ensuing from the truth that they lifted their restrictions early, not a lot that it is BA.2 that is there,” he says.

CNN famous that it’s troublesome to acquire correct case counts now as a result of so many individuals are utilizing dwelling testing kits and never reporting constructive outcomes to well being departments.

“I feel there isn’t any query there’s underreporting of constructive circumstances,” Mara Aspinall, a professor at Arizona State College, advised CNN.

Murray mentioned he’s apprehensive extra a couple of attainable COVID surge within the fall, when immunity offered by boosters declines and leaves individuals weak, maybe to a model new subvariant.

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